Long Term Performance of Cereals in Gujarat - An Empirical Analysis

High growth in agriculture sector was observed in Gujarat during recent years. This was mainly attributed to shift in cropping pattern of the state towards high value crops. Hence this particular study was conducted to know the status of cereal crops in the state by assessing the performance of cereals crops on long term basis using most recent and powerful statistical tools. Secondary time series data on area, production and yield of cereal crops was collected from Season and Crop Reports, Department of Economics and Statistics (DES), Government of Gujarat, online data bank of International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics and Economic and Political Weekly (EPW) data bank for the period from 1970-71 to 2011-12. Best fit non-linear model was fitted and parameters of the model were estimated using Marquardt algorithm. Instability was estimated by constructing Cuddy-Della Valle Index. Result shows that, production of cereal crops in the state has increased mainly because of improvement in the yield. The productivity of cereal crops was notably improved after the year 1991 in all the parts of state. Area under cereals has registered negative growth during entire study period at state as well as at district level also. The significant reduction in the magnitude of yield instability was recorded in the second sub-period of study, which helps to reduce the instability in production during the same period. More fluctuation in area under cereals crops was observed in second sub period of the study. It was observed that, yield variability was a most important source of instability in production of cereal crops. Hence, it is appropriate to adopt the yield stabilisation measure in cereal crops in the state.