CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF OIL PALM YIELD IN AKWA IBOM STATE, NIGERIA

The aim of this paper is to determine the climate change vulnerability of oil palm yield in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to sample six communities from two Local Government Areas (Ibesikpo Asun and Etim Ekpo) known for oil palm production in the study area. Probability Density Function (PDF), trend analysis, and change points analysis were used to show the changes in climate over time (1901 to 2019) in the study area. The study adapted two climate change forecasting scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for projection into what a changing climate could mean for oil palm yield in the future (2020 to 2050). The results revealed there is consistent decrease in mean annual rainfall amount in the last 100 years in the study area. Backward shifts in the rainfall are further observed in the pattern of PDF as seen in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 between the year 2020 and 2050. The study further revealed that there will be increase in oil palm yield in the study area from 2022 to 2050 using RCP 4.5 forecasting scenario compared to RCP 8.5. The study recommends that climate change policies to reduce the anthropogenic activities at household level, processing level and industrial level should be formulated. Again, oil palm farmers should be sensitized through workshops and training on the need to know the effect of climatic variables (Humidity, rainfall temperature) on oil palm yield. Finally, . the study will assist policy makers in formulating an efficient and effective policy to ensure the mitigation of effect of climate change on oil palm yield in the study area.